📰 Weekly Market Recap (July 8–12, 2025): AI Pullback, Rotation Into Energy, Macro Watch
Date: July 13, 2025
By: EverHealth AI Markets Team
🔹 Summary
Markets entered a choppier phase this week, with AI names pulling back after months of gains, while energy stocks led a rotation into value. Macro developments — including U.S. CPI data, Fed minutes, and global tariff discussions — kept risk sentiment volatile. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended slightly down, while the Dow eked out a minor gain.
📈 Index Performance (July 8–12)
| Date | S&P 500 | Nasdaq | Dow Jones |
|---|---|---|---|
| July 8 | +0.06% | –0.18% | +0.36% |
| July 9 | –0.21% | –0.34% | –0.10% |
| July 10 | –0.14% | –0.27% | +0.22% |
| July 11 | +0.18% | +0.04% | +0.19% |
| July 12 | +0.07% | +0.16% | +0.04% |
| Total | –0.04% | –0.59% | +0.71% |
💡 GPT’s Picks Mid-July: Energy Surprise
Mid-month update shows continued leadership from GPT’s July picks — Oracle and Estee Lauder — while Jabil rebounded modestly. GPT's AI model also flagged ExxonMobil (XOM) as an emerging outperformer amid rising crude prices.
- 🟨 Estee Lauder +6.20% — momentum builds on luxury sector rebound
- 🔵 Oracle +1.05% — steady enterprise strength
- 🔴 Jabil –0.12% — stabilizing after earlier weakness
- 🟧 ExxonMobil +3.40% — benefiting from oil price breakout
🧠 Sector Snapshot: Energy Rallies, Tech Pauses
Rotation trends sharpened this week as AI stocks cooled and energy, financials, and materials caught a bid:
| Sector | Weekly Return (%) |
|---|---|
| 🛢️ Energy | +2.95% |
| 🏦 Financials | +1.88% |
| 🏗️ Materials | +1.31% |
| 🤖 Technology | –1.12% |
Investors appear to be rebalancing portfolios toward cyclical sectors amid rate cut speculation and commodity price momentum.
🌍 Macro Focus: Tariff Decision Delayed, Fed Divided
The July 9 tariff deadline passed with no formal decision, suggesting the White House is weighing timing strategically ahead of the election cycle. Meanwhile, the CPI came in below expectations at 2.8%, fueling rate cut hopes, but the Fed minutes revealed deep division.
In Europe, Germany reported soft trade data while Italy’s bond yields edged higher amid deficit concerns. Asia saw diverging policy stances, with Australia cutting rates while Korea held steady.
🧭 Outlook: What to Watch Next Week
- Q2 Earnings Season kicks off in full with Netflix, JPM, and Tesla
- U.S. Retail Sales and Jobless Claims — key consumer health signals
- China GDP and Industrial Output
- Geopolitical watch: possible U.S. tariff announcement window
📌 Key Takeaway
“Markets are rotating, not retreating. Watch energy and financials as potential summer leaders if tech takes a breather.”
