Cash Windfall From Trump’s Tax Law Is Starting to Show Up at Big Companies

The impact of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act—President Trump’s signature tax reform—has begun to hit corporate America’s financials in a very tangible way. From AT&T to Amazon, a wave of cash tax savings is now reshaping how some of the largest U.S. companies plan their capital spending, reinvestment, and shareholder rewards.

The Numbers Behind the Windfall

AT&T recently disclosed that it expects between $1.5 billion and $2 billion in cash tax savings this year alone. That translates to an 11% boost to 2025 free cash flow projections—before the law even passed. The company expects even more in 2026 and 2027, raising its estimates by $1 billion annually.

But AT&T is just a sliver of the pie. According to Zion Research, companies like Meta could see tax savings as high as $11 billion in 2025—equivalent to 31% of its estimated free cash flow. Amazon could net $15.7 billion in savings, or 43% of its forecasted free cash flow. Combined, Zion estimates that 369 S&P 500 companies will benefit from a staggering $148 billion in tax savings, equal to 8.5% of their total free cash flow.

What’s Driving the Savings?

Three major tax provisions are behind the numbers: 100% bonus depreciation, upfront expensing of R&D, and relaxed interest deductibility rules. This means companies can write off assets and R&D investments immediately, improving cash flow without affecting reported earnings.

These aren’t just accounting gimmicks—they’re real, tangible shifts in capital structure. Meta, for example, expects $4.6 billion in accelerated R&D expensing and another $6.4 billion across new investments and property write-offs. While these savings won’t all show up in free cash flow, they do provide more flexibility to pay down debt, invest in innovation, or return value to shareholders.

Investor Takeaway

Although these tax breaks won’t hit GAAP earnings, they do affect what matters to many investors—free cash flow. And with uncertainty around tariffs, geopolitics, and consumer demand, this extra cushion may be what keeps capital expenditures steady and share buybacks alive.

The market’s resilience this summer may owe more to tax policy than initially appreciated. As David Zion put it, “More cash in the company’s pocket. Less cash in Uncle Sam’s pocket. That in theory should be good for investors.”

Looking Ahead

While some benefits are front-loaded and one-time in nature, others—like 100% bonus depreciation—could provide long-term tailwinds. If these reforms stay in place, they might alter how U.S. companies allocate capital for years. But if a new administration rolls them back in 2026 or beyond, investors may need to recalculate.