Weekly Market Recap (September 1–5, 2025)
Stocks rose as a softer jobs report boosted odds of a near-term Fed cut. The Nasdaq led, the S&P 500 followed, and the Dow finished modestly higher. Under the hood, Communication Services outperformed while Energy lagged.
Index Performance (Weekly)
| Index | Weekly Change |
|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +1.03% |
| Nasdaq | +1.98% |
| Dow Jones | +0.23% |
Sector Snapshot (1-Week)
AI Picks Performance
| Stock | Weekly Return | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| UnitedHealth (UNH) | +2.13% | Defensive growth bid amid softer labor data |
| Newmont (NEM) | +0.41% | Gold steady; rate-cut hopes offset risk appetite |
| Arista Networks (ANET) | +5.14% | Networking leadership continued; AI datacenter spend |
Macro Focus — Hiring Stalled in August, With 22,000 New Jobs
August payrolls slowed to just +22,000, reinforcing a summer-long hiring fade. The jobless rate edged up to 4.3% and earlier months were revised, including June swinging to a 13,000 loss—the first decline since late 2020. Since May, job creation has averaged roughly 26,750 per month, leaving year-to-date gains at about 598,000, the weakest (ex-2020) since 2009.
Losses were broad based: manufacturing (−12k), construction (−7k), and professional/business services (−17k) fell. Healthcare and social assistance added ~46.8k, cushioning the headline. Federal payrolls dropped by ~15k, with larger cuts expected as deferred resignations roll off later this year. Longer searches are showing up in the data: the share unemployed 27+ weeks climbed to 25.7%, and the unemployment rate for Black workers rose to 7.5%.
Weaker hiring alongside tighter immigration appears to be slowing both labor demand and supply, which helps explain why unemployment is drifting higher even as job gains diminish. Markets now see a September Fed cut as very likely, though equities were mixed—easier policy won’t immediately fix soft demand or policy uncertainty.
Outlook
- Policy path: The data all but locks in a September cut; watch Fedspeak and claims for confirmation.
- Positioning: Communication Services momentum persists; evaluate Energy after a −2.46% week.
- Earnings lens: Listen for hiring freezes or cautious headcount plans in guidance.
Key Takeaway
A cooling labor market lifted rate-cut odds and tech leadership, while cyclical pockets softened. Defensive growth (Healthcare) and select AI infrastructure names outperformed.
Week ended September 5, 2025. Data: market indexes & public releases.
